Sample statistics vs population parameters

This post could be lifted from an introductory statistics text. But in my experience working with researchers the important distinction between a sample statistic and a population parameter gets a little muddled.

A population parameter is an value that describes a population, such as the mean BMI of all American’s or the mean rent in NYC. A sample statistic is a value from a sample, such as the mean BMI of a sample of 100 Americans or the mean rent of a sample of 20 apartments in an NYC neighborhood. A sample statistic is often used to estimate a population parameter, but they are not the same thing.

Hypothesis tests are used to test values of population parameters. For example, suppose I create a weight-loss program I believe is effective for the general population. My interest is not if it works in any one random sample, but rather if it works in the general population. I want to test if the mean weight loss in the population is greater than zero. In symbols, if \mu_d > 0 (assuming that weight loss is denoted as a positive value). In practice we will never know the true value of \mu_d (sorry).

But we can test \mu_d > 0 (alternative hypothesis) vs \mu_d = 0 (null hypothesis). Suppose I find a random sample of 100 people, weight them before and after my weight-loss program, and find that the mean of the before-after differences within each subject is \bar{x}_d=3 (i.e., the subjects lose an average of three pounds on the program). Statistical theory tells us that \bar{x}_d is an unbiased estimator of \mu_d, i.e., a fair guess is that \mu_d=3 but we can’t say that \bar{x}_d=\mu_d. It could be that \mu_d is actually -10, or 10, or 0 regardless of whatever value \bar{x}_d assumes, or whatever p-value is found from the test.

For example, suppose p=0.001 for the test described above. This would supply “strong evidence” that \mu_d= is incorrect and that \mu_d=3 is acceptable, but we still don’t know the true value of \mu_d.

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